For posterity, having received numerous requests about Argentina, here are two presentations from before last summer I gave arguing that Argentina was a Ponzi scheme and that default was expected regardless of the election outcome. This was realised with the PASO, but was a fundamental macro call (and not political.)
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“It is inconceivable that policymakers today, aided by their theoretical understanding of the mechanisms and by the statistical information at their disposal, would begin to make the serious errors committed by the governments in 1929-32.” J. Tobin
The General Theorist 
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